Golub Capital, a top middle market lender, reported that U.S. middle market companies continued to show earnings strength in Q2 2025. According to the Golub Capital Altman Index (GCAI), earnings climbed 5% and revenue increased 2% during April and May 2025.

This latest middle market data points to ongoing business resilience, despite ongoing tariff and tax uncertainty. CEO Lawrence E. Golub emphasized that the firms studied, primarily serving U.S. customers, demonstrated consistent earnings and revenue growth. He also noted that July’s implementation of the BBB tax bill could further boost consumer spending and economic confidence.

Though uncertainty around tariffs has stalled capital investment decisions, Golub stated, “The U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound. Once trade conditions stabilize, we expect middle market growth to gain momentum.”

Dr. Edward I. Altman, co-creator of the GCAI, added, “Our data shows encouraging signs from U.S. middle market firms this quarter. In particular, strong EBITDA and revenue gains in the technology sector reaffirm that B2B software remains vital for productivity in today’s unpredictable climate.”

The Golub Capital Altman Index, developed in partnership with Dr. Altman, is the longest-running index to track actual revenue and EBITDA for middle market companies. It captures financial trends from 110 to 150 U.S. private firms within Golub Capital’s loan portfolio. The GCAI serves as a forward-looking indicator of public company earnings in indexes like the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600, and it aligns closely with quarterly U.S. GDP data based on over a decade of statistical testing.

Importantly, the GCAI maintains strict confidentiality while aggregating financial data across industries. The index highlights key trends in sectors that are central to private sector employment and allows for comparisons with large-cap benchmarks.

In Q2 2025, Golub Capital paused separate reporting for the Industrials sector due to a limited sample size. However, Industrials remain factored into overall revenue and earnings calculations. As the index has minimal exposure to Financials, Utilities, Energy, and Materials, comparisons are adjusted accordingly.

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News Source: Businesswire.com