In Q2 2025, U.S. middle market earnings posted a 5% increase and 2% revenue growth, signaling strong economic resilience. These figures come from the Golub Capital Altman Index, covering the first two months of the quarter.
Golub Capital’s CEO, Lawrence E. Golub, emphasized the adaptability of mid-market firms amid ongoing tariff and tax uncertainty. He noted steady revenue and earnings growth among companies that mainly serve U.S. consumers.
“The economy’s foundation stayed strong through April and May,” Golub stated. He added that the recent BBB tax bill may boost consumer confidence and disposable income going forward.
However, tariff-related instability continues to delay capital investment decisions across sectors, according to Golub. He anticipates faster growth once tariff conditions stabilize.
Dr. Edward I. Altman highlighted encouraging data from Q2 2025. He believes investors will find the Index’s company-level performance a useful economic barometer.
“Our data shows strong growth in the Technology sector,” Altman said. He pointed out that demand for B2B software solutions remains high despite market uncertainty.
The Golub Capital Altman Index is a longstanding benchmark tracking actual revenue and EBITDA of private U.S. middle market firms. It includes data from about 110 to 150 companies in Golub Capital’s loan portfolio.
This Index closely reflects performance trends across public indexes like the S&P 500 and S&P SmallCap 600. Back-tested data since 2012 proves its accuracy in forecasting national economic metrics such as GDP.
Golub Capital ensures confidentiality by reporting only aggregated and industry-specific growth rates. The data offers transparency while protecting individual company performance.
These middle market companies are vital to U.S. private-sector job creation. Their earnings and revenue results can be compared against larger public company indexes.
The Q2 report dropped individual Industrials sector data due to a smaller sample size. However, Industrials remain part of the total Index growth averages and may return as a separate segment later.
The Index still excludes Financials, Utilities, Energy, and Materials sectors. Thus, adjusted S&P 500 and S&P 600 versions serve as more relevant comparison benchmarks.
Overall, middle market earnings, revenue trends, and technology sector growth reinforce the segment’s economic impact. The Index continues to offer timely insights for investors and economic analysts alike.
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News Source: Businesswire.com